Vojenské Rozhledy

Czech Military Review

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The Information War in Ukraine as a Part of the Military Strategy

Reviewed - Review

Jan Měřička

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2022, Vol. XXXI. (LXIII.): 21-37 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.31.2022.01.021-037

This paper assesses the information war in Ukraine in the context of the military strategy. An influence of the information operation (disinformation and deception) presents the strategic tool. The author pragmatically analyses the information war from the military art perspectives and as a part of the strategy used for support of the combat operations. He identifies phases of the information war in the context of the war. The author expects and confirms the opinion that the information war is led by both external actors (the USA and the Russian Federation). Their top representatives are involving in the information war because they support their own interests. This paper has been written as a neo-realist case study. The balance of power concept is in accordance with the used theory, as well as with the key interests of the external actors.

Leadership development in the conditions of the Czech Armed Forces

Reviewed - Research

Milan Marek, Aleš Tesař

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2022, Vol. XXXI. (LXIII.): 50-70 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.31.2022.04.050-070

The aim of this article is to define leadership as a process required in the Czech Armed Forces. To this end, the nature of military leadership is first identified by analyzing similarities and differences of the widely accepted theoretical concepts (schools) of leadership, including approaches used in selected alliance armed forces. Based on the current state of affairs analysis, the components of leadership and the relationship among them are identified, as well as general conditions for their application. In accordance with the knowledge gained, a general leadership model of the Army of the Czech Republic is proposed.

The Process Approach to Human Resource Management in the Czech MoD

Nonreviewed - Other

František Mičánek

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2021, Vol. XXX. (LXII.): 168-183

The article is a creative elaboration and proposal for optimization of selected activities of the human resources management process in the Ministry of Defense, which have a fundamental influence on achieving the set goals of personnel policy of the Ministry of Defense. The article builds on the analysis of the "status quo" of the human resource management in the Ministry of Defense, carried out with the help of dimensional and stakeholder analysis, sector analysis PESTLE-M, and questionnaire survey with a sample of officers (students of career courses KVD and KGŠ). It also uses the results of capability-based scenario, on which a prediction of the future needs of personnel and financial resources is calculated and demonstrated. For selected activities of the human resources management process their possible content is discussed, as well as the effects (or the necessity to set them accordingly) of internal and external process controllers.

Modern National Projects: Implementation of Development Projects in the Czech Armed Forces

Nonreviewed - Other

Petr Křížek, Vladimír Vyklický, Aleš Tesař, Zdeněk Mikula

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2021, Vol. XXX. (LXII.): 184-193

Experienced experts in military modernization projects use a new generic implementation tool in defence planning to compile a comprehensive implementation plan for acquisitions. A software tool based on MS Excel facilitates the linking of a planning tool to create an implementation plan. The functional analysis matrix created by the software tool is suitable for the evaluation of DOTMLPFI functional areas within individual phases, especially the implementation phase and the evaluation phase. The resulting product is a checklist for the full implementation of a military project describing its life cycle with all major milestones, which respects the Czech Defence Standard and compatibility with NATO doctrine.

NATO After the End of the Cold War

Reviewed - Review

Jan Eichler

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2021, Vol. XXX. (LXII.): 3-25 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.30.2021.02.003-025

The article analyses the process of the NATO enlargement after 1990. It starts by a detailed analysis of the secret negotiations which have been started just after the end of the Cold War. In the light of the institutional liberalism, the NATO enlargement is a positive process which satisfied especially new member states. But in the light of the American neorealism, this process resulted into profound changes in the balance of the security threats and into a large militarisation and tension at the new Eastern frontier of NATO in a direct neighbourhood with the Russia. New military units with the modern arms systems are deployed over there and we are witnessing a growing number of dangerous military incidents. As a result, the contemporary situation needs new political negotiations between two competitors and a shift from the contemporary negative Peace towards the positive Peace.

The Revolt of French Soldiers Against the Failing Immigration Policy

Reviewed - Review

Jan Eichler

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2021, Vol. XXX. (LXII.): 3-22 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.30.2021.04.003-022

The article is about the revolt of French soldiers against the failing immigration policy of their country. It explains its rational causes at the historical, geopolitical as well as security levels. It analyses its three main acts since 2013 until today and presents their key actors: the high level generals and politicians. These acts are presented as historical accidents. The article shows that French soldiers refuse to be silent face to face big stakes, especially on the field of defence of the Republic against the growing violence of young immigrants. The text continues with the analysis of two manifests of French soldiers from spring 2021 that evoke the threat of the civil war in France and the role of the Armed forces in such a scenario.

The Capabilities of the Army of the Czech Republic to Conduct Military Operations in the Tropical Rainforest

Reviewed - Review

Daniel Buršík

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2020, Vol. XXIX. (LXI.): 71-84 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.29.2020.01.071-084

The article is focusing on challenges connected with execution of the Czech Army military operations in tropical rainforest under umbrella of international organization. The military engagements in the tropical climate depends on unit general characterization and necessary unit competency insufficiently specified in the Czech Army Catalogue of Capabilities. The Czech Army Catalogue of Capabilities standardizes training methods, training cost, and required training area and required training equipment and material. Based on experience gained from the training of the Czech military personnel in Jungle Training Centre in French Guyana, we can assess that to attain required skills for jungle operational environment acquires a few weeks. The international organizations are capable to provide necessary training for jungle operational environment in order to reach required level of skills and competencies before operation execution.

Defining and Evaluation of Competencies of an Officer of the Czech Armed Forces

Reviewed - Review

Jaroslav Kuba, Richard Saibert

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2020, Vol. XXIX. (LXI.): 65-83 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.29.2020.04.065-083

The article deals with the issue of identification and evaluation of the competencies of senior officers of the Czech Armed Forces. Paper investigates the role of the authorities responsible for military branches and military occupation specialties in the system of defining officer´s competencies. It was also examined the scope of possible application of the competency model of a professional soldier defined by the National System of Occupations in the process of career management. As a comprehensive and optimal solution, a full application of competency model is proposed. The partial application of the competency model is based only on the use of the soft competencies component. Both of these proposals are formulated primarily for the purpose of describing the job position and official evaluation. The paper also brings a number of proposals in the conceptual and normative area circumscribing and strengthening the role of the responsible authorities in the process of defining the officer´s competencies.

Prognostics Methods of Security Phenomena

Reviewed - Review

Josef Smolík

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2018, Vol. XXVII. (LIX.): 3-23 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.27.2018.01.03-24

This article describes the basic terms used in prognostics (future studies, forecasting the future, prognosis, prediction, expert) and introduces selected prognostic methods and techniques which could be applied in security area (brainstorming, focus group, trend extrapolation, Delphi method, scenarios etc.). The basic classifications and prognosis typologies are mentioned as well. Particular phases of prognosis making are described too. For the Czech security community the prognosis making has an important potential whose outcomes (of particular surveys) should be manifest in following years. This text has only tried to outline selected methods and techniques for their potential application.

Efficiency of Language Education at the Language Center of the University of Defence

Reviewed - Research

Mária Šikolová, Vladan Holcner

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2020, Vol. XXIX. (LXI.): 37-48 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.29.2020.02.037-048

During the period between 2016 and 2019, the efficiency of language courses was scrutinized by invention methods. In 2019, the language requirements were set to 14 958 positions in the Czech Armed Forces (60.69 %). Out of the given number of positions, the language requirement was met by only 6 414 professional soldiers, i.e. 42.88 %. The results of the language courses vary a lot depending on the required level of language proficiency; the courses designed to prepare the learners for SLP 1111 and SLP 2222 had the success rate around 60 %, however, the success rate of the courses for SLP 3333 was rather lower (38 %). Out of five groups of factors affecting the success rate, the relative significance of 22 factors was assessed. Most of the critically significant factors concerned the organization of language education; some of the critically significant factors were as follows: placement testing, flexibility of the syllabus and familiarization with the exam format and assessment criteria.

Current Problems and Needs of Modern War Veterans (sociological research)

Reviewed - Research

Jaromír Ďuriš, Jiří Hodný

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2020, Vol. XXIX. (LXI.): 62-75 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.29.2020.02.062-075

The paper presents selected knowledge and findings of the sociological survey, which was focused on identifying the needs and problems of modern war veterans leaving the military service in 2018. The findings of the research point to recurrent problems in communication and information transmission to the ending soldiers in their service as well as the lack of information in relation to the resort's offers of care and assistance to war veterans. The subjects involved in the war veteran care system do not always have full current information, which may lead to negative reactions and attitudes of some military personnel that the setting system does not adequately respond to soldiers' problems and needs, especially before leaving military service.

Weapons of Mass Destruction and Chemical Corps in Light of Czech Military Periodicals of 1920-2020

Reviewed - Review

Radim Zahradníček

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. MC/2020, Vol. XXIX. (LXI.): 75-85 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.29.2020.MC.075-085

Research into the historiography of the use of Weapons of Mass Destruction involves an excursion of the study of recent problems of Chemical Corps in the literature. Four basic periods were identified in the development of the theory of Chemical Corps and the concept of the use of Weapons of Mass Destruction. 1. The First World War and the foundation of Czechoslovakia as a period of changes in the principles of military leadership due to the existence of chemical weapons. 2. The period after the end of World War II, reflection on threats in the form of the development of Chemical Corps, the take-over of Soviet doctrine and military research objectives. 3. 1990s as a period characterized by an accent on the Gulf War, proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction and the introduction of new technical means of Chemical Corps. 4. Beginning of the 21st century and the threat of ultra-terrorism, the development of specialized capabilities of Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Defence, birth of the 9th Chemical Protection Company of immediate response and literary dominance of international security issues, which outweigh force protection problems in operations. The researched articles illustrate the originality of scientific thinking and the social contribution of scientific literature to the defense sector.

Targeting Process on the Example of the Libya Case

Reviewed - Review

mjr. Mgr. Terezie Němcová, MPA

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2015, Vol. XXIV. (LVI.): 61-71 | DOI: 10.3849/1210-3292.24.2015.01.061-071

Protection of the civilian population against the Gaddafi regime, it was a clear UN mandate for military intervention in Libya in 2011. Not only a new approach to leading the fight against terrorism after 11 September 2001, but also requires a change in approaches to conducting combat operations coalition forces, as shown by the recent armed conflict in Libya, inevitably required a new perspective on the concept and approach to the process of targeting as the process of selecting and prioritizing targets and responding to them in accordance with operational requirements and capabilities of units, synchronization of NATO forces, particularly with regard to collateral damage with an impact on the protection of civilians. And Unified Protector operation is a clear example.

Models of Proliferation of Rocket Technologies Used by Hybrid Actors in the Middle East

Reviewed - Review

Ladislav Kulhánek

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2019, Vol. XXVIII. (LX.): 73-84 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.28.2019.01.073-084

Rocket technology occupies an elite position in the doctrines of hybrid actors in the Middle East. The thesis of proliferation of tactical ballistic missiles analyses four models - political, technological, substitutional and propagandist-psychological. An effective reduction of ballistic missiles and technologies has been identified in the political model, where sanctions and embargoes limit the proliferation of missile technology. In the technical model, which plays a key role, the limiting factors are those of development and dissemination of high-energy laser weapons. The substitutional model illustrates the application of tactical ballistic missiles as carriers for improvised devices. It is of marginal importance, despite covering targets that involve secondary damage. Studying the model of propaganda and psychology confirms the psychological effect on the population associated with the losses, but it does not affect the reduction of missiles.

Commanders´ Development for Strategic Level Defence Management

Reviewed - Review

Milan Marek, Josef Procházka, Janka Kosecová

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2019, Vol. XXVIII. (LX.): 20-37 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.28.2019.02.020-037

The article offers for expert discussion research outcomes assessing commanders´ development in the area of leadership for assignments in defense organization. It also evaluates the level of utilization of gained competencies while managing these organizations. Research was conducted from 2017 to 2019 and embraced predominantly surveys among participants of career courses provided by the Centre for Security and Military Strategic Studies of Defense University in the life-long education program. Research outcomes proved limited level of understanding and implementation of leadership theoretical framework in daily business. Additionally, it shows that the implementation of verified leadership processes and principles by middle- and higher-military management fluctuates about the average level. Furthermore, it figured out an insufficient application of all available instruments for people motivation and support including the approach "leading by example". Finally, it outlined several recommendations for the reinforcement of military personal preparation in the area of leadership for the successful conduct of middle- and higher-managerial position in military organizations. The first and at the same time the most significant step is the recommendation for implementing leadership areas into the Ministry of Defense conceptual documents in the form of vision, strategy and systemic measures.

Assessment of a Model of Competency to Lead Others for the Graduates of the Faculty of Military Leadership Working in the Armed Forces of the Czech Republic

Reviewed - Review

Andrea Brichová, Petr Veselík

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2019, Vol. XXVIII. (LX.): 38-49 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.28.2019.02.038-049

The article is focused on assessment of the model of competency to lead others for graduates of the Faculty of Military Leadership of the University of Defence. This competency to handle the initial demands of a command post, to which graduates of the Faculty of Military Leadership may be enrolled immediately after their studies. The main aim of the research was to define, structure and evaluate the model of competency to lead others for the graduates of the Faculty of Military Leadership based on the experiences of the commanders which serves in the Army of the Czech Republic. Questionnaire survey of own construction for two groups of respondents (young commanders and their closest superiors) was used to obtain the data. Those data were evaluated by parametric and nonparametric statistical analysis. The results of the analysis showed that abilities defined in the model of competency are used in daily military life by addressed commanders.

Realisation of Strategic Analysis from the Point of View of Strategic Documents Elaborators in the Czech Armed Forces

Reviewed - Review

Jiří Richter, Miroslav Mašlej

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2019, Vol. XXVIII. (LX.): 16-29 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.28.2019.01.016-029

The article provides partial results of the research Strategic Analysis Methods applicable within the Defence Department of the Czech Republic. This research addresses a low level of use of strategic analysis methods in the development of strategic and conceptual documents of the department. In the years 2017 and 2018, interviews with the processors of these documents were carried out and the problems related to the use of strategic analysis methods in sector planning were analysed. In particular, the article analyses the content and utilization process of stakeholder analysis method, SWOT analysis, future scenarios, benchmarking and GAP analysis.

Conceptual Development of the AFCR - Approaches and Strategic Starting Points

Reviewed - Review

Ing. František Mičánek, Ing. Josef Procházka, Ph.D.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2015, Vol. XXIV. (LVI.): 4-19 | DOI: 10.3849/1210-3292.24.2015.01.004-019

This paper aims to enrich professional discussion on future shape of the Armed Forces of the Czech Republic (AFCR) and is linked to the preceding research and publishing activities of members of the Centre for Security and Military Strategic Studies (CBVSS) at the University of Defence. In its first part, it performs a historical tour to the year 2012 and highlights the reasons that the former leadership of the ACR led to the start of construction work on the concept of AFCR (KVAČR). Briefly describes the interconnection and the hierarchy of individual conceptual and strategic documents, the procedure works on them and summarizes the arguments supporting the need of KVAČR as such. The next section brings potential methodological approaches to the preparation of this document, using the method of the "9S", including practical examples, it renumbers basic strategic assumptions and priorities in various stages, bordered by years 2020 and 2025 as a prerequisite for formulating strategies for achieving this specific goal. Within the document, there is a short excursion into the field of long-term planning for major areas of skills, using their description of DOTMLPFI functional areas, including an example of using this methodology in project preparation of program funding. The recommendations formulated in the article are based on the authors' best experiences with the preparation of documents of a similar type in the years 2003-2013, the recommendations of experts from the broader security community of the Czech Republic, and recommendations of the Alliance. As such, it has been passed to the KVAČR processors at level of the General Staff of AFCR over the years 2013-2014.

Combat Use of Light Infantry: Tactics with LMV Iveco

Reviewed - Review

Karel Zetocha

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2018, Vol. XXVII. (LIX.): 85-105 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.27.2018.01.85-106

Light Infantry units are primarily equipped with the Iveco light armored vehicles in the Army of the Czech Republic. Similar type of vehicles was acquired by the armies of some other NATO members. Armored LMVs represent a new category of equipment and no specific tactical procedures have yet been created. The aim of the text was to develop general tactical light infantry procedures for the current training needs of units with Iveco LMVs. In the text, combat battle drills on vehicles and tactical procedures for the use of light units equipped with the LMV Iveco have been created. Combat deployment experience and results of live simulation were main source of information for development of LMV tactics and procedures. Presented procedures can be used for training of units equipped with LMV Iveco. The use of light armored vehicles also showed the design limits of this technique. LMVs Iveco cannot fulfill the role of primary vehicle of light infantry units on a conventional battlefield mainly due to their low level of endurance.

Role of International Cooperation in the Development of the Czech Armed Forces Medical Capabilities

Reviewed - Review

Petr Král, Antonín Novotný

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2018, Vol. XXVII. (LIX.): 105-128 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.27.2018.03.105-128

The article deals with the use and future prospects of the international cooperation for the development some of Czech Armed Forces capabilities in the field of military medicine. It has no ambition to address this issue in its entirety, but only contains an analysis of some of the current formats and initiatives of international cooperation in the field of military medicine, with the justification of their origins and a brief evaluation of their contribution. Part of the article is also a proposal for possible measures to improve the development of medical capabilities in the framework of international cooperation.

Ministry Officials of the Czech Republic and the Use of Social Scientific Knowledge

Nonreviewed - Other

Prof. PhDr. František Ochrana, DrSc., Prof. PhDr. Arnošt Veselý, Ph.D., Mgr. Martin Nekola, Ph.D., Mgr. Blanka Tollarová, Ph.D.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2018, Vol. XXVII. (LIX.): 109-124

The paper deals with the ministerial officials of the Czech Republic. Using large-N survey on the Czech ministerial officials and in-depth interviews with them, we are exploring the role of social scientific knowledge, which use ministry officials. Based on results of the empirical research are drawn comparative conclusions concerning the ministry of defence and other ministries.

The Importance of Development Trends Analysis and its Military Implications for Defense Planning

Nonreviewed - Other

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2017, Vol. XXVI. (LVIII.): 106-119

Participation of experts form NATO member and partner countries in security situation development trends together with related military implications is meanwhile the newest mean of member states engagement onto NATO Defence Planning. In one hand this possibility is a way to gain findings from national experts and in other hand an opportunity enabling countries to enlarge knowledge and experience of national participants in order to development of similar activities at national level. Moreover there is an opportunity to present activities of nations´ institutions working in the similar field as well as national findings linked to security trends and defence planning. The author concludes that the Czech Republic has not yet formulated its own defence planning process, and suggests the possible effects of this condition

Optimization Dislocation of Accoutrements Military Distribution Points in the Czech Armed Forces

Reviewed - Research

por. Ing. Tatiana Macháčová, Ing. Michal Zelenák

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2016, Vol. XXV. (LVII.): 73-90 | DOI: 10.3849/1210-3292.25.2016.01.073-090

The article presents four possible dislocation options of military distribution points of accoutrements in the sector of Czech Armed Forces. The article assesses the impact of those options on the driving distance, total operation costs and the value of the stocks staff uniform shirts for men. There is defined simplified model and the calculation is used localization task on the base of these parameters. Analysis of the various options and their subsequent comparison is proposed optimal dislocation distribution points. In calculation the distance value will be determined based on knowledge of the coordinates of the localized objects. The final section is using a multi-criteria evaluation of alternatives selected the most appropriate option for distribution point of military accoutrements.

Opportunities of the Ministry of Defence in Promoting the Framework Nations Concept

Reviewed - Review

plk. gšt. Ing. Ondřej Havel, Ing. Antonín Novotný, Ph.D.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2016, Vol. XXV. (LVII.): 35-54 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.25.2016.04.035-054

After several years of reducing of the Czech defence budget there is a reversal and the Czech MoD begins to manage the increased budget especially for Czech Armed Forces capability development. The Czech Armed Forces is for many years actively involved in the process sharing multi-national capabilities of NATO. Among the former activities such as Smart Defence and Connected Forces Initiative, is also initiative Framework Nations Concept. This article analyzes the overall framework of this initiative, direction and development of this concept.

Scenarios in Capabilities Planning Process

Reviewed - Review

Ing. Josef Procházka, PhD., Ing. František Mičánek, Doc. Ing. Jozef Šmondrk, PhD., pplk. Ing. Josef Melichar

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2016, Vol. XXV. (LVII.): 44-60 | DOI: 10.3849/1210-3292.25.2016.01.044-060

The aim of the article is to bring inspiration and offer needed recommendations for implementing the scenarios in the defence planning process. The article addresses purpose, development and practical application of scenarios in a national defence planning process, utilizing capability based planning (National Capability Based Defence Planning - NCBDP). During the planning scenarios are used for identification and verification of capability requirements. Scenarios depict main features of the environment in which the armed forces will be employed to execute military missions. Scenarios reflect as well operational concepts in a sense of doctrinal use of armed forces. Furthermore, they offer a possibility to identify and quantify required capabilities in a volatile, difficult to predict, complex, permanently and dynamically changing environment, and reduce level of uncertainty and associated risks. In this regard, scenarios are significant analytical and supporting tool of defence planning with high value added. Correct application of scenarios allows defining a set of required capabilities necessary for success in potential future conflicts. Scenarios enable long-term planning of capabilities development and optimisation as a platform for qualified and well informed decisions at the MoD level on the armed forces character, structure and size with regard to the ambitions and international commitments of the country. In the conclusion the article brings recommendations for the defence planning process improvement by exploiting capability based planning and scenarios. Recommendations provided in the article include doctrinal changes, organizational changes within MoD and General staff, recommendations for updating the education plans for military personnel, recommendations for optimization of the defence planning process as well as for necessary changes in the approach of the defence managers and military leaders to the described method.

Adaptation of the Czech Republic Defence Policy and Strategy to the New Security Threats

Nonreviewed - Research

Ing. Josef Procházka, Ph.D., Ing. Vladimír Karaffa, CSc., PhDr. Libor Frank, Ph.D.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2015, Vol. XXIV. (LVI.): 8-22

This article deals with challenges for the defence policy and strategy of the Czech Republic and their further adaptation and. It outlines set of recommendations for ensuring its armed forces relevance and their long term sustainability. The article reflects debate during the international conference Defence and Strategy organised by the Centre of Security and Military Strategic Studies of the Defence University and held on 15-16 June 2015 in Brno.

International Contexts of War in Ukraine

Reviewed - Review

doc. PhDr. Jan Eichler, CSc.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2015, Vol. XXIV. (LVI.): 5-19 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.24.2015.02.005-019

The article deals with the international context of the latent war in Ukraine. It explains the recent history of the post-Soviet area in the light of Galutng's theory of positive and negative peace. It continues by the annexation of the Crimean peninsula and its international consequences. At the same time, it examines key features of the debate in the USA as well as other NATO countries. It focuses also the debate about the livraison of arms to the Ukrainian government and explains the arguments of proponents as well of the opponents of this controversial project.

Predictive Methodology in Intelligence Services

Reviewed

Bc. Petr Zelinka

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 29-39

This article aims at building a bridge upon a gap, which separates academic sphere and intelligence community in the issue of predictive methodology. The author tries to accomplish this objective by presenting intelligence predictive methods based on open-source literature research. First, the question of uncertainty and probability in prediction is introduced (Cynefin template). Then follows basic introduction to predictive methods in civil and military intelligences, so that the reader might grasp the fundamentals of early warning systems. The academics and above all journalists should know the risks and perils in forming intelligence forecasts, estimates, foresight and warning scenarios, e.g. the so-called Black Swan scenario, the author explains potentials failures of the Delphi method. This study ought to be regarded as an introductory to predictive intelligence concurrently done by governmental agencies for purposes of national security and defence.

Water Potential for Conflicts and Confusion of Global Hydropolitics

Reviewed - Review

Prof. Ing. Josef Říha, DrSc.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2014, Vol. XXIII. (LV.): 128-140 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.23.2014.02.128-140

This paper addresses a gap in the literature relating to the effects and implications of water scarcity and the potential for water wars. The theme has evident military consequences. Experts provide rather pessimistic forecasts about the situation with freshwater on the planet. The early warning models seem to be quite useful as well as early warning conflict indicators. The author deals with the problem from the level of the Czech Republic.

Theory of Peace as a Contradiction to War Science

Reviewed - Other

Doc. PhDr. Felix Černoch, CSc.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2014, Vol. XXIII. (LV.): 133-141 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.23.2014.04.133-141

The peace is a state of affairs among states, nations and mankind, characterized by a friendly coexistence, solving matters in dispute by means of negotiations and accords, without use of armed and physical forces or psychological coercion. For preserving peace it is important to respect state sovereignty, independence, the right of nations to define their own courses. The theory of peace, dealing with those items, being introduced by the following article, is called paxology.

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