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The identification of security threats and subsequent risks is the base on which we form security and military strategies. It is also the core of all security scenarios. That's why we must welcome all books dealing with futurology predictions, like The Cognition of Future as a Challenge by Martin Potůček at al, Karolinum, Charles University. He summarizes knowledge and experiences done by CESES, the only scholarly lab dealing systematically with drafting up visions and strategies the Czech state might be confronted with. The CESES is a Czech acronym, which stands for the Centre for Social and Economic Strategies, at the Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague.

In spite of the fact that it is a new concept, it presents one of key methods of international engagement in crisis areas the EU prefers. Its main components are crises prevention and securing stabilization. Security tasks are composite problems solving one of main state functions: to guard external and internal security together with principles of civil control. This essay among others aims to explain practicability of the EU's concept of preventive engagement as a tool of implementation of the European Security Strategy, further it describes European concept for crisis management missions in the field of civilian administration supporting security and justice. At the end there are some recommendations for the Czech Republic how to form capacities for EU missions and for the transformation of Czech security sectors.

The article presents six more or less structured analytical methods that are or could be employed in intelligence analysis. This type of analysis, one part of the intelligence cycle, is understood as "the process of evaluating data for reliability, validity, and relevance; integrating and analysing it; converting the product of this effort into a meaningful whole, which includes assessment of events and implications of the information collected". The set of presented methods includes: link analysis, opportunity analysis, analogy, linchpin analysis, analysis of competing hypothesis and alternative scenarios. The study doesn't stop with presenting those methods; it also explains which type of reasoning (inductive, deductive or abductive) is used when working with each particular method. In broad terms, the article tries to shed light on intelligence analysis and its specifics. The reader should obtain better understanding their usefulness in the daily work of intelligence analyst.

NATO's Research and Technology Organization covers six panels dealing with technology. System Analysis and Studies panel drafted a long-term scientific study "Joint Operations 2030" that was performed for three years under the direction of CNAD (Conference of National Armaments Directors). This study identifies system approaches of NATO further development. Its purpose is recommend remedies for eliminating potential defects in future Alliance capabilities, in the frame of anticipated security surrounding and emerging new technologies. The work was divided into five states: evaluating previous studies, evaluating basic potential, setting priorities, new technologies and the last stage evaluated results reached by means of Multinational Exercise. The final version of this document (Final Report) will be released in next half. By joining JO2030 the Czech Republic underlined its resolution to contribute to the advance of NATO defence potential.

The article familiarizes readers with theoretical assumptions of planning and strategical decisionmaking in Defence Department and Czech armed forces. The author finds connections and similarities among others with public sector and civilian structures tied with budget spending. The strategical level of planning is a highly complicated and expert procedure. At present, planning process in defence department, within MoD sector, is specifi ed by the Order of Defence Minister No. 33, 2004. In this document, there are highly elaborated principles and rules of planning of activities and development implemented in defence sector. The article is based upon papers and reports presented at the Defence Sources Course, MIDMC 2001-06, Resources Management Institute, USA, held at the Military Academy Brno in 2001, and documents dealing with managerial problems.

The key term in this article is "war economy" It is used to describe the contingencies undertaken by the state to mobilise its economy for war production. Often confused term "resource conflicts" needs explaining. First, there are raw materials, mineral resources (diamonds, precious metals). Another group of resources are critical items, water supplies, and fertile lands. This article concentrates on conflicts provoked by the abundance of natural sources, not by their insufficiency. Their driving motive is "greed-based" model (the effort to take over the control over lands, crude oils). Another model is "grievance-based" model, based upon the feeling of hate, having its roots in e.g. underprivileged position of certain part of population) tied with worsening economy). "War economy" got a new meaning. It moved far away from Clauzewitz's paradigm, the sense of such war is in itself, the war is protracted, it is war for war's sake.

Under the auspices of Defence University Brno, for the third time, the social researchers executed the investigation of opinions and attitudes of Czech citizens towards the Army of the Czech Republic. It is a continual, systematic monitoring of long-run attitudes, perspectives, and preferences of Czech population, their stability or variability, preferences and priorities. It was measured by the sample survey (quota sampling). A total of 1,050 adult respondents (with a representative sample of 1,005 respondents) were polled by 62 interviewers. The first place among Army tasks took the help of the forces in time of natural disasters and ecology catastrophes (96.4 %); the second came the defence of Czech territory (85,2 %); and the third fight against terrorism (82,7 %). As less important is regarded the deployment of the Czech army abroad (55,4 %). All gathered data are presented on several graphs and schemes.

It is an information study about sociological research completed among Czech servicemen, former members of military missions abroad, under the aegis of the rector of the University of Defence. The research goal consisted in finding causal relationship between missions and breakup rates. Among others it was determined that for breakups were predispositions even before partners went to missions abroad. A total of 3 % stated they wanted to escape from family problems. Partnership after returning home broke up in 15.6 % of questioned veterans. Research should provide cornerstone data for a proposal of concrete measures for reducing divorces and partings. The stratified sample consists of 348 respondents from the ACR who took part at least in one mission abroad and were married, or lived in long-term partnership. Data collection lasted from July to October 2008.

The theme of this study is a prognostic reply to the anticipated rise of mentioned two Asian powers from the point of international relations. Their growing power will precipitate consecutive results-the end of American leading role and coming multiple world. Will it produce world's stability or security threats? The author presents several scenarios. All take note of 9/11 attacks and a possible crash of two form of capitalism, democratic in the West and authoritarian in China and Russia. India has a special position. The economic success of those systems is a great chance for humane rights and civil liberties. World's dominance will be divided among the U.S., China, partly the EU, with strong position of regional powers, India, Japan, Indonesia, Iran, South African Union, Egypt, Brazil, Mexico and others. Russia will lose his superpower position, its internal economic and ethnical problems make it weak, and therefore Russia will attempt to form military coalition with China, which will lead to new world's bipolarity.

The SALT agreements seem to be outdated, nonetheless the current discussion on the U.S. missile defence systems must be perceived in its complexity and theoretical framework, with AMB treaty as a cornerstone. The article suggests that ABM treaty and Interim Agreement, forming together the outcome of SALT negotiations, demonstrate that rational decisions are fully compatible with arms control system and realist approaches to the international relations. The author supposes that cooperation and mutual trust can be achieved through negotiations and perception of other participants. He also takes into account the impact of Soviet nuclear build-up in 1960s is and its consequences. The important conclusion can be derived from this fact: arms control should be expected more in times of military balance rather that the domination of one world's actor. Key words: disarmament, arms control, mutual assured destruction, and antiballistic missile systems.

This article begins with a theoretical discussion of the culminating point, for both the attack and defence. Key definitions and related concepts provided in Carl von Clausewitz's On War, Joint Publication 3-0, Doctrine for Joint Operations, and U.S. Army Field Manual 100-5, Operations, are discussed in detail. These sources provide many of the factors that can cause a force to reach culmination, and serve as a basis for understanding the difficulties involved in trying to determine the time and place of culmination. Other current factors attributing to culmination are discussed, and recommendations are offered to help operational commanders and planners to zero in on this elusive point. It is of the utmost importance that one's own, and the enemy's culminating point be identified with the highest possible degree of accuracy during the planning phase of a major operation or campaign.

The administrative culture is something like "mind set" of "software" of organization, its philosophy, a part of which is the so-called economization. The process of economization of defence sphere will lead to further decrease in numbers, cutting down redundant materiel, supplies. Such economy measures should produce savings in terms of hundred millions Czech crowns, side by side with the increased potential of the whole military organization. The authors introduce Activities in Defence Sector the CAF model (Common Assessment Framework), based upon the Model Excellence of the European Foundation for Quality Management, expressed by the following formula: factors involved equals personnel times activities (education) times facilities (investments). There are some similarities between army management and business administration, so the economy instructions ought to be part of overall military education and training.

At present, we are going through army transformation, represented among others by lowering military expenditures. One of many questions accompanying this process is a purposeful and functional spending money for military purchases. The authoress, the former teacher at Defence University Brno, explains her method of multicriteria decisionmaking during shaping the algorithmic program eliminating non-optimal behaviour, suitable for all, military and state, officials, who are in contact with external providers (suppliers). Introduced method is transparent one and could be used namely for small public orders, explicitly during concluding contracts without legally fixed terms. The proposed method is demonstrated upon a concrete example of realized contract.

The act of making up commander's mind is one of most important roles of leaders/managers. The science of managing or controlling ought to be employed even in everyday life of the military. The skilful or resourceful use of materials, time, etc. are the main characteristics of command and control. The purpose of this article is to outline connections in management theory, namely managerial posts, coupled with command. How we can use management theory in shooting drills or marksmanship theory in commander's decisionmaking. The authors explain sequential managerial functions, planning, organizing, staffing, analysis and their implementation into shooting practice. The article is accompanied by several schemes. This exercise can be also used in modelling of combat clashes, as a part of simulations in computers and as a factor of the professional preparation of servicemen.

The reform of the Czech armed forces is factually and timely tied with the transformation of NATO forces, both in the field of technology and that of doctrine. The covering principle of this transformation is the so-called EBAO concept, in the frame of which we define three main transformation objectives: forces must have operational superiority, they must be operationally effective, deployable, and sustainable. The effects-based approach to operations focuses on combining military and non-military actions to influence the overall behaviour and capabilities of other actors: national, trans-national, belligerent and benign, in an operational environment in order do create effects leading to the achievement of strategic objectives and a desired end-state. Its application focuses the planning, execution and assessment of operations. The cited EBAO handbook was followed by several documents (e.g. discussion papers), issued at the end of 2007 as a means to inform future doctrine reviews. Many of the concepts and documents should be validated, either through experimentation, or through specifically designed exercises.

The author follows the mainstream economics, i.e. leading economics of defence policy, ranging from economics of defence in the nuclear age, via economics of Iraq conflict, to current fight against terrorism. New paradigm must be drawn, taking into account source management, the distribution of economics weight of individual national economies of all countries participating in the fight against global terrorism.

The main aim of this essay is more to open the way for solving methodological problems, point to directions defence economics ought to follow, rather than to find easy answers to all of them. That is the ver y theme of Economy Depar tment of Facult y of Economics and Management, Defence University Brno. It is the base for defence economy, constituted as a science discipline.

Economy of production, economies to scale, in civilian sector are quite different than economy pattern in defence sphere, as specifying the allocation of sources for the Army of the Czech Republic is not based on exact calculation of costing, payments as we could not observe the substantial terms of comparable partial and overall expenses. At present, we are not fully able to compare defence outputs, nor effecitivity of spent sources.

The specificity of defence as a public estate rather complicates necessary changes in public expense management, namely those chapters designated for the armed forces. One of prospective tools for defence economic management is controlling, which is more than mere control. It coordinates planning, information flows, it concentrates on final effects. The authoress explains and depicts how this method is working in the German Federal Forces (Bundeswehr).

This essay is practically the first public essay concerning the system of financial standards within the scope of the Czech Ministry of Defence. The author describes current system of financial standards in short-term a medium-term planning. He clarifies their creation, points at some absences and outlines areas suitable for further research. The document is based upon data collected in the specific research project SV05-VVŠ-K02-10-ING. The article is accompanied by several tablets of financial items and cost sheets for individual financial standards.

In today's conflicts, such as the Global War on Terrorism in Iraq and Afghanistan, the threat is more difficult to define; in fact, there are often multiple threats working against our forces concurrently. Our army lacks first-hand information from current battlefields, so that the author must make use of mediated experiences. The paper is therefore based upon articles from foreign military magazines, namely Intelligence Synchronization on a Nonlinear Battlefield (Military Intelligence Professional Bulletin 4/2004) and Intelligence in Peacekeeping Operation (International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence 1/1997). It is not a mere translation or compilation, but ingenious summing up of discussed ideas. In this study, the author thinks over intelligence synchronization and proposes a new way of looking at it. Methodology heads from priority intelligence requirements towards specific information requirements, via indicators, and so on. The purpose of intelligence synchronization is to focus efforts to build, refine, or clarify the commander's understanding of the battlefield and the threat.