Vojenské Rozhledy

Czech Military Review

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Results 211 to 240 of 1277:

Security Forum '08

Book review

PhDr. Antonín Rašek.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2008, Vol. XVII. (XLIX.): 173-175

In February 2008 the Security Forum took place in Slovakian city Banská Bystrica. The collection of 32 presented papers was issued by Matěj Bél University. This review summarizes main ideas of those papers, in a form of cross-section study. The reviewer finds most inspirative Maersheimer?s neorealistic theory of stability, classifying bipolarity above multipolarity, which is reflected in consequent evaluation of security threats. New security threats ask for the transformation of NATO alliance, in the background of political Islam or the recent Russian-Georgian conflict. The contents analysis of presented papers points to main hidden problem lying behind all security questions: whether the U.S. would be able to continue in its role as a world leader, explicitly owing to American economy difficulties, e.g. today?s financial and mortgage crisis.

The Security System of the CR and the Necessity of its Adaptation to Cumulative Effects of Threats

Reviewed - Review

PhDr. Libor Stejskal

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 37-47

The term of "growing complex of threats" covers higher and higher probability of concatenation of various intercommoned, mutually tied factors reflecting structured technological and informational reality of global society, making their solving by traditional means of security system extremely difficult. "Crisis situation" represents more general problem of natural disasters or technology breakdowns that are influencing one another, that cause great distress or destruction, in an unexpected manner, activating subsequent threats of so far unforeseen threats. For that reason we must adapt Czech security system to new liquid, instant and indivisible complex threats.

National Security Planning and the Issue of Varying Prices: MoD Case Study

Informational pages

Podplukovník Ing. Bohuslav Pernica, Ph.D.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 97-104

Government controls state executives by planning, i.e. a bureaucratic process providing sets of documents. Such plans ought to be feasible in an expecting resource environment. Approach and methods using for working out respective plans are supposed to be conforming to the purpose. In order to be realistic, a financial plan, a budget, should cope with environment of increasing and decreasing prices and exchange rates. This essay, as a case study, deals with the issue of adapting of the short and medium-term planes working out by the Czech MoD for purpose of programming, budgeting and purchasing. The case study shows that generally there is a long-run lack of interest in adapting of such planes to an environment of changing prices and volatile exchange rates.

Strong and Week Features of "Responsible Ownership of Technology" Concept

Military professional

Ing. Marie Poláchová

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 138-144

There is an urgent need to recognize changed priorities and evolve new approaches to non-proliferation and disarmament objectives for a sharper focus on the real and present dangers to international peace and stability. The focus must now shift to more effective monitoring and verification of compliance at various levels. The proposed ROOT system (Responsible Ownership of Technology) might be one of such means to meet above mentioned challenges that could eliminate present-day dangers and contribute to international peace and stability. It is the technology for security in the 21st century.

Food Terrorism and Agroterrorism

Military professional

Ing. Hana Vlachová, Ph.D.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 160-168

People commonly imagine terrorist attack as hijacking or improvised explosive device hidden in crowded place. However terrorists can also attack against food, cattle, farm crops or water resources. These kinds of attacks can be ranked among agroterrorism or food terrorism, whereas agroterrorists attack against cattle, farm crops or water resources; food terrorists attack against foodstuffs. This paper is intended to provide information about agroterrorism and food terrorism as possible forms of wilful violence. Food security became discussed issue especially after anthrax incidents in 2001. There are many authorities that deal with these issues, for example EU, NATO or World Health Organization.

A History of the Use of Private Military Forces

Informational pages

Doc. Mgr. Oldřich Bureš, M.A., Ph.D., PhDr. Vendula Nedvědická

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 76-93

Although private military companies like the former Blackwater were regarded as a relatively new phenomenon in international security, their history is not new. The participation of private individuals, and /or groups of private individuals, soldiers of fortune, in "foreign" armed conflicts is at least as old as the history of wars by itself. It is impossible to open a debate about the scope and possible impact of the current use of private military and security companies without knowing and evaluating their long-term historical developments. The goal of this study is therefore to map the history of the use of private military forces, their involvement in various conflicts, services they offer, among others, from the point of international law.

Engineering Aspects of Doctrine "Deployment of Ground Forces in Operations"

Military professional

Doc. Ing. Jaroslav Zelený, CSc., Ing. Jan Mazal, CSc.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 146-161

The article deals with the problems of current "military engineering" in Czech Army, which arose during drawing up the "Doctrine for land forces operations". The content of this article consists mainly of three parts. The first one has to characterize some doctrine development aspects from the engineer's contributor point of view. Secondly, to adduce requirements for the content of a doctrine which are consequent to NATO main military engineering documents, e.g. MC 0560, AJP-3-12(A) and ATP-52(B). Thirdly, this level has to evoke resourceful discussions on topical military engineering within military community and to contribute to the mutual opinion consensus achievement.

Language Training within the MoD in the Context of the MoD Order 1/2007

Language preparation

Podplukovník Mgr. Jan Šmíd

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 162-166

The most frequent word in language preparation is successfulness. This term could be quantified, defined, examined from the point of growth or rating decrease. Our language preparation sticks to Defence Minister Order No 1/2007 (effective from September 2010) on language training. It abolished integrated language courses, teaching units for SLP 1, 2 were decreased. The author examines the situation before and after the publication of the said order and provides possible explanations of the current state, showing slow descent. He supports his explanations with empirical data gathered in foregoing years, through surveys, statistical analyses of test results, in-class observations, and oral feedback from course learners.

Starting Points for the Preparation of Updated Security Strategy of the Czech Republic 2011

Reviewed

PhDr. Miloš Balabán, Ph.D., PhDr. Antonín Rašek

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 3-19

In our country, existing strategical documents related to security used to be compiled very carefully, but proved to be not very effective, as they did not fit to practical everyday security policy, they did not comply with day-to-day requirements. The only exception was the 1991 doctrine dealing with the creation of Integrated Rescue System and the implementation of professional armed forces. At present, there is a tendency to rewrite those strategy documents again, namely in the field of security. The preparation of a new version of Czech security strategy is taking place in time marked with new trends in world politics and economy. The main attention is attracted by crisis management, arms control, disarmament, WMD non-proliferation, cooperation with non-NATO nations, and international organizations, last but not least counterterrorism and cyberspace security strategy. In short the study mentions Czech political-military ambitions, defence strategy, defence capacity and resources, it appreciates in value knowledge gained by the Centre of Security Policy, Faculty of Social Science, Charles University Prague, and it contains conclusions and recommendations for the preparation the 2011 Czech National Security Strategy.

Nine Memories for the Czech Future (Illustrations Instead of Critiques)

Book review

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 175-183

The book consists of papers by eleven authors, members and fellow members of the Centre for Social and Economy Strategy, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University Prague. At present, we must prepare to face socially unwelcome phenomena. We must arrange preventive projects, so that we could solve prospective crises. The authors therefore pay their attention to methodology of crisis scenarios, or how they are to be prepared. Predicted nine worst-case scenarios anticipate prolonged crises, failure in education policy, rise of extremism, climate changes, energy collapse, lack of international balance, and separation of the Czech Republic from Europe.

Global Security: System Approach (Barack Obama's First Midterm)

PhDr. Antonín Rašek

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 9-37

This extended essay is based upon various sources, among others on May 2010 President Obama's speech at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, where President Obama described his national security objectives. The highest priorities of U.S. national security are the safety of Americans at home and abroad and achieving a peaceful, stable world through global cooperation despite a flawed international system. The Obama's security strategy relies heavily on diplomacy and engagement, economic development and other methods of influence, along with U.S. military capabilities with global reach and unsurpassed resources. As we face multiple threats, from nations, non-state actors and failed states, America will maintain the military superiority that has secured country, and underpinned global security, for decades. The security strategy is global, and identifies an array of real or potential security challenges that include: countering violent extremism and insurgency; stopping the spread of nuclear weapons and securing nuclear materials, resolving and preventing conflict; and reducing destabilizing risks to economic interdependence.

What Type of University Education for Military Professionals is Necessary?

Opinions, controversy

Doc. RNDr. Ladislav Halberštát, CSc., plk. Ing. Vladan Holcner, Ph.D, mjr. Ing. Pavel Foltin, Ph.D.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 60-70

The paper is a contribution to the ongoing discussion regarding training, drills and education of military personnel. It indicates a comprehensive solution of the issue both in national and international connection of the current approach to military vocations, life-long learning Vojenské rozhledy 1/2011 and expected deployment of the present-day armed forces. Using results of a research conducted within the Czech Ministry of Defence and Armed Forces, authors specify roles of individual stakeholders in the process of training and education in the military and define prerequisites of an effective military educational and training system. The authors treat this problem in context of the so-called National Qualification Framework, multinational project of EU member states Military Erasmus, activities conducted by European Security and Defence College (ESDC) and others.

Posttraumatic Stress Disorder

Informational pages

Ing. Jaroslav Kulíšek

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 94-113

The PTSD is an emotional, anxiety disorder that might develop after exposure .to a terribly frightening, life-threatening, or otherwise highly unsafe experiences. Recently, we have witnessed quite inappropriate behaviour of the Czech Army soldiers in Kosovo (KFOR) and Afghanistan (ISAF). The Ministry of Defence came to the conclusions the Czech Army soldiers ought to be immune to PTSD, but so far there has been is no serious psychological research, no survey conducted by Czech Army Mental Health Services and no information how many Czech soldiers returning from the duty in Afghanistan or other missions abroad are suffering from PTSD. It is high time to take important initial steps in the care over Czech army veterans, because competent professional soldiers, with years of experience, can also often break down from accumulated stress. This was illustrated by the events in KFOR and ISAF last year.

Water Purification Done by Special Logistics Troops of Bundeswehr in Afghanistan

Military professional

Ing. Vladislav Vincenec, Ph.D., doc. Ing. Miroslav Cempírek, CSc.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 119-127

The paper offers data on the water supply to Federal German Armed Forces (Bundeswehr) combat units in the frame of ISAF operations. It explains new concept and technology of water purification and the exploration of natural water sources for BW water filling stations. Experiences have shown that clean water is of top priority especially in field missions such as that in Afghanistan. The systems of WTC 500, WTC 1600, WTC HS (High Salinity) and WTC container systems are able to prepare up to 15.000 litres of water supply every day. They are highly mobile, of friendly use, capable to work under rough climatic conditions. Built-in recycle systems could save as much as 60 per cent of operating costs. The water prepared by German purification stations is of high quality and meet both norms STANAG 2136 and WHO standards

Partnership for Learning Program: Online Drill with Native Speaker As a Supplement to Full-time Study of English at the Defence University

Language preparation

PhDr. Ivana Čechová Ph.D., Mgr. Radek Nedoma, RNDr. Oldřich Kříž, Jiří Mrenka

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 128-136

Making use of multimedia, ICT, in a foreign language teachinglearning process is the effective way how to influence motivation and results of the educational process. Based upon the Czech-Canadian Partnership for Learning Program, the project provides synchronous communication between a native speaker and a student during language training, regardless the distance. Mutual communication is an opportunity when the students/learners can use their second language not only in professional discussions, but also in solving problem matters, relevant to their study branch, interests, current events or hobbies. The authors' experience and its analysis form also a part of this paper.

Military Keynesianism, Defence Expenditures and the Growth of Economy Militarization in Advanced Countries of World

Informational pages

Ing. Vendula Hynková, Ph.D., doc. dr. Luboš Štancl, CSc.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 108-120

Keynesian economics argues that private sector decisions sometimes lead to inefficient macroeconomic outcomes and therefore advocates active policy responses by the public sector, including monetary policy actions and fiscal policy actions by the government to stabilize output over the business cycle. This paper defines the core of Keynesian economics in the mirror of defence expenditures and their influence on country's economy growth. The main attention is paid to the analysis of military-industrial complex and its pressure on armed forces, as one of most important factors introducing a danger of the so-called militarization of both state economy of advanced industrial countries and their social life.

Selected Problems of "Soldier of 21st Century" Project and its Economy Aspects

Nonreviewed - Other

Pplk. doc. Ing. Bedřich Rýznar, CSc., kpt. Ing. Jan Mazal, Ph.D.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. ZC/2007, Vol. XVI. (XLVIII.): 93-102

Main focus of this article is laid on the digitalization of battlefield, command and control, Network-Enabled Capability (NEC) implementation, organization structures transformation brought about by the 21st Century Soldier concept and its economic implications. Based on this topic, the authors present mobile sensor system as a result of research being done in the Military Management and Tactics Department, University of Defence Brno.

Critical Evaluation of State Defence Economy

Nonreviewed - Other

Plk. prof. Ing. Aleš Komár, CSc.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. ZC/2007, Vol. XVI. (XLVIII.): 103-106

The defence of country is demanded, but as far as monetary resources are concerned (the effectiveness of which is mostly not transparent), the civilian public takes them as a mistake, as superfluous expenditures. The military economy is an interdisciplinary branch of knowledge, it is a broad subject that can?t be reduced for mere controlling expenses. Still, it is very difficult to assess its recoverability, in comparison with its importance for state defence.

Theoretical Background of Security Science and Medium Range Theory (Discussion Supplement)

Opinions, controversy

PhDr. Antonín Rašek

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2007, Vol. XVI. (XLVIII.): 90-100

Recently, on pages of this Military Review, several authors wrote about new scholarly discipline, the securitology (Josef Janošec, MR 3/2007). The author would like to add several ideas to this new discipline, inspired among others, D. Meadows, Limits to Growth, P. Kennedy, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, R. Robertson, Globalization: Social Theory and Global Culture, Albrow, M. The Global Age, and many others. Today's world actors, the U.S., People's China, Russia, India, Iran, are in their roles accompanied by institutions, such as the Unites Nations, European Union, NATO, International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, multinational monopolies, etc. Among key actors also belong established international terrorism, international crime. The common outlet of those megatrends is emerging New Multipolarity, new picture of world's configuration. Among others, at the end, the author calls for good relations with Russia, otherwise we might face energetic crisis (energy aspect of security).

Securitology-Teaching about Security and Non-Security

Nonreviewed - Other

Doc. Ing. Josef Janošec, CSc.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2007, Vol. XVI. (XLVIII.): 3-14

The term "securitology" seems to be appropriate for nomenclative scientific discipline dealing with a research subject, security reality. This article proposes to use Yin- Yang principle and its applications to a philosophy of approach, holistic understanding contrapositive security forces. The classification of selected philosophical and methodological approaches to theme of securitology, the formalization of wide problems of securitology research, are the main items to be done first. The author presents his own approach to measurement in securitology, proposes theoretical models for description of problems connected with security questions, applications of various scenarios. He recapitulates traditional theories and practices of securitology and offers some new information on imaginable problems connected with multiparadigmatic sciences. Finally, he summarises contemporary state of research, including original draft of mathematical formulas to localize security threats. There are also some recommendations for future research in the field of securitology.

A Meritable Step in Understanding to the Presence and the Future of the ACR

Book review

PhDr. Antonín Rašek.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2007, Vol. XVI. (XLVIII.): 177-179

This article presents a letter of introduction for the book by the recent director of Brno Institute for Strategic Studies, Josef Janošec, "Security and Defence of the Czech Republic 2015-2025", composed together with other authors from this institute. This deed is even more rewarding owning to the fact that in our country we lack an advanced cultivation of military sciences. Since the beginning of our pre-war Republic, we've only taken over ready-made military doctrines: at first it was the French doctrine of defensive lines of fortresses and forts, after WWII it used to be the Soviet Offensive Doctrine. Only in 1968 there was an attempt to draw up Czech national military doctrine in the so-called Memorandum of Military Political Academy (a military school of university type), but after the invasion of Soviet Army in the same year all such efforts faded in vain. The book by Ing. Janošec and his team is a brave attempt to establish the starting point for our own genuine Czech security policy, based upon broadly conceived security analyses ...190

The Report by Madeleine Albright's Team and Its Wide-ranging Contexts ("Council of Wise Men" and Drawing up the Alliance's New Strategic Concept)

Reviewed

PhDr. Antonín Rašek

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 15-30

This concept has been preparing since the early 2009. In short, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation must be increasingly prepared to intervene far beyond its borders. In the coming decade, NATO will have four central inter-related military missions. The first requirement is to "deter, prevent and defend" against aggression, so as to ensure the political independence and territorial integrity of NATO member states. The report insists on the need to send out military missions beyond the treaty area "when required to prevent an attack on the treaty area or to protect the legal rights and other vital interests of Alliance members". Any expeditionary mission must be based on the principles of the UN charter. Another key item is to cooperate better with those partners, and others worldwide, in order to tackle the new threats posed by cyber attacks, piracy, arms proliferation and energy supply insecurity and climate change. However, in order to achieve the new goals, NATO "must halt the precipitous decline in national defence spending", and to introduce reforms to make spending more efficient.

Al Qai'da Hybridisation in North Africa and its Implication for Europe

Military art

Bc. Martin Janků

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 55-70

The article is focused on issue of hybridisation of Al Qai'da in Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), in North Africa, and its implications for European countries. The process of hybridisation is being conceived as growing nexus and convergence between violent non-state actors, while these processes could be in this case identified mainly in issues of use of kidnappings and secondary also reported involvement of AQIM in regional smuggling, mainly drugs, activities through Sahel and Saharan region to Europe. Regarding GSPC background, AQIM could be in long term theoretically able to re-establish its financial and supporting networks in Europe via cooperation with organized crime, which were largely disrupted after major crackdowns by security forces between 2004-2007. Event though a direct Al Qai'da attack in Europe is-according to the author-excluded, the purpose of this article to draw our attention to an eventuality of rebirth of European operation network of AQIM operational predecessor, i.e. GSPC.

The Professionalization of Armed Forces of the Czech Republic as an Open Project and Innovation

Opinions, controversy

Podplukovník Ing. Bohuslav Pernica, Ph.D.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 71-80

The shift from vocational military service to all-volunteer force (AVF) could be regarded and treated as any other scholarly assignment of project management, so we can get a better look at its bugs and risks. The author applied the Valentas classification of innovation upon this AVF project in the Czech Republic and demonstrates what are main risks for its sustainability. He sees the first cause and effect in the reality that this shift lacks sufficient support by social sciences and humanities. Since 2003, only six per cent of scientists/scholars employed by the Czech Ministry of Defence have been supporting this great change. It is not enough and it makes certain incompetence within defence ministry to reach the factual aim of this move and AVF produces more and more difficulties. According to the author, the professionalization of forces in our country has not meet its main purpose--to raise professional qualities of military personnel, in spite of the fact it originally used to be the prime objective of this process.

What A Commander Needs from System of Education? (Response to an article by Brig.Gen. Zůna and Lt.Col. Pernica in Military Review No. 3, 2010)

Opinions, controversy

Podplukovník gšt. prof. MUDr. Jan Österreicher, Ph.D.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 80-81

The author, director of military hospital base, reacts favourably to the article mentioned above. He would like to add something from the practical point of military commander. In his unit, there is a deficiency of attested graduated surgeons, whereas there are a lot of graduated nurses, rescue workers, because of a wide offer of civil colleges and universities. They study in their leisure time and thus gain higher educational background. In consequence, his unit does not need graduates from Defence University in Brno. He comes to the conclusion that necessary commissioned officers could be recruited from among ranks of non-commissioned officers or sergeants, by means of additional schooling and scholarships, or by recruiting graduates from civilian colleges and universities.

The Shadow of Nuclear War over Europe (1945-1968)

Book review

PhDr. Antonín Rašek

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 190-196

The Shadow of Nucler War over Europe (19451968). In spite of general expectations, even after the end of the Cold War the world can't get rid of atomic threat. Interest in nuclear problems has increased in the last few years. Among new books dealing with this problem belongs also the monograph by Josef Fučík "The Shadow of Nucler War over Europe: The Strategy of Military Blocks, Operational Plans and the Role of the Czechoslovak People's Army in Central European Theatre in 1945-1968". In the 60's, the last century, the danger of nuclear confrontation was extremely high. The Soviet Union accumulated large atomic potential, the fact that disabled American strategy of flexible response. On the other side, this fact led the Americans to strengthen conventional forces, not welcomed by American Western Allies. Nowadays we can see similar situation, in case of unwillingness of West European nations to support American activities, e.g. in Afghanistan.

Homage to Eightieth Birthday of Miroslav Purkrábek

Personal data

PhDr. Antonín Rašek

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 197-201

Had PhDr. Miroslav Purkrábek, CSc. was still alive today, he would be 80 years old. It was on September 8, 2005, that Miroslav Purkrábek, suffered a stroke. This year it has been fi ve years since he died. He was a person who contributed to social sciences on three distinctive fi elds: military sociology, sociology of military health, and sociology of public policy. As a gifted scholar he expected that alongside with disarmament talks and preparing collective defence, especially after the fall of world?s socialist system, that task of the army would shift towards preventive, threatening role. But he even lived to see the moments when military professionals were engaged in real combat, in preemptive conflicts, against non-traditional, assymetric forces of guerrilla character. At the same time he could see that another hypothesis of transition to all professional forces was going be fulfi lled. Unfortunately, the Czech Army was not prepared for this important process, as political and MoD leaders at were occupied by this theme of professionalization only marginally.

Alliance's New Strategic Concept (Discussion Continues)

Reviewed

PhDr. Antonín Rašek

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 3-15

The NATO's New Strategic Concept is only starting point to open discussion on a wide range of security problems. At the beginning there is a description of Czech home politics, attitudes of Czech political parties toward NATO alliance. The author explores the history of NATO's identity crisis. In recent years, different security optics of the members splintered NATO. The US wants an expeditionary alliance with a global reach, the Western Europeans hold to a vision of a regional club of liberal democracies, the Central Europeans have a wish so that Washington would stand by them when they will find themselves pressured by Russia. NATO is divided on how to reform its decision-making processes and how to fund and resource its home and away missions. In Afghanistan, the Alliance faces the most difficult operational challenge to date, with a real possibility of strategic failure. The overarching problem is how to define the core business of NATO: cyber defence, energy security, WMD proliferation, stability and reconstruction missions, out-of-area missions, territorial security, enlargement, partnership-building. The discussion over the New Strategic Concept needs to reorder the question how to define NATO's appropriate roles and go from there.

The Current Reality of Nuclear Threat

Reviewed

Mgr. Jan Ludvík

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 16-23

This article addresses vital issues of possible threat of nuclear weapons in contemporary world. First, the general nuclear order-particularly the NPT regime-is briefly examined. Analysis proceeds to a critical exploration of the prospective use of nuclear weapons by small nuclear states and the so-called rogue states. Some attention is also paid to the conflict between India and Pakistan, since these two states are often considered as the most dangerous from perspective of possible use of nuclear weapons. The author considers the threat of nuclear war between great powers and then the threat of nuclear terrorism. His analysis suggests that deterrence between great powers is reliably working. The threat from rogue states is limited by technological difficulties in process of development and production of nuclear weapons and limits of small nuclear arsenals. Even though threat of nuclear terrorism should not be underestimated, this paper argues that technical obstacles and availability of other comparatively cheap methods effectively reduce the terrorists' desire to acquire nuclear weapons.

Main Methods of Intelligence Analysis and Ways of its Evaluating

Military art

Mgr. Miroslav Kalous

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 24-32

The article presents six more or less structured analytical methods that are or could be employed in intelligence analysis. This type of analysis, one part of the intelligence cycle, is understood as "the process of evaluating data for reliability, validity, and relevance; integrating and analysing it; converting the product of this effort into a meaningful whole, which includes assessment of events and implications of the information collected". The set of presented methods includes: link analysis, opportunity analysis, analogy, linchpin analysis, analysis of competing hypothesis and alternative scenarios. The study doesn't stop with presenting those methods; it also explains which type of reasoning (inductive, deductive or abductive) is used when working with each particular method. In broad terms, the article tries to shed light on intelligence analysis and its specifics. The reader should obtain better understanding their usefulness in the daily work of intelligence analyst.

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